---------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Florida SunFlash Why UNIX Will Win on the Desktop SunFLASH Vol 25 #17 January 1991 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is an article by Dr. Eric E. Schmidt. It is reproduced with permission. -johnj Dr. Eric E. Schmidt is vice president, General Systems Group, at Sun Microsystems, Inc. , Mountain View, Calif. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Why UNIX Will Win on the Desktop By Dr. Eric E. Schmidt Sun Microsystems, Inc. It's trendy to say that the line between PCs and workstations is blurring. The real truth is that UNIX-based systems are taking over, and by the end of the 1990s, the market will clearly distinguish between two types of desktop computers: machines that run DOS and machines that run UNIX. DOS machines will be purchased primarily as single-user systems for stand-alone applications. And in the long run, the only single-user machines the only DOS machines will be in people's homes. Why is this? Because the power of distributed, networked computing is effecting a profound change on corporations. The fact is that humans are inherently networked: we inherently need to commmunicate with each other. Anyone that has networked application needs will turn to UNIX-based solutions, because UNIX is the only multi-tasking, multi-user, multi-vendor operating system available today. That's what makes it the only choice for the next generation of distributed applications. That's why UNIX will win. It's the closest thing the industry has to a pure open standard. Because AT&T Bell Labs made it available in source form in the 1970s, nearly all systems companies either base themselves on UNIX or offer a form of it, including major players such as IBM, Apple, Intel, HP, Sun, DEC, Olivetti, Fujitsu and Unisys. UNIX is available on all PCs today in one form or another. Within five years, all high-end '386 and '486 PCs will be running UNIX with DOS emulation. Gradually, the final "dumb terminal" applications will disappear when this occurs the death knell of the minicomputer. And mainframes? They aren't going away: they'll become servers. We'll just stop using them with dumb terminals. The other operating system in contention (more or less) is OS/2. While OS/2 provides multi-tasking, it's still a single-user operating system. It will have some following because of the existing installed base of DOS applications. However, users are looking for open solutions and OS/2 isn't open. Particularly since IBM recently took back primary control over it. The resulting perception of OS/2 as a proprietary solution will stunt its growth and limit it to the derivative market of DOS applications. Besides pointing to the "threat" of OS/2, UNIX foes have brought up other arguments. But they just aren't valid anymore. For example: Myth: The UNIX market is splintered. Fact: we're down to two choices: UNIX System V Release 4 and OSF/1. All the major computer companies have endorsed one or the other. OSF/1's sponsors say that it will be interoperable with SVR4, giving us as close to a single standard as possible without having a monopoly. Myth: There aren't any UNIX applications. Fact: the leading PC software applications Lotus 1-2-3, WordPerfect, dBase, Ventura Publisher are ported or are in the process of being ported to UNIX. The combination of these applications and new distribution mechanisms based on CD-ROM will initiate an explosion in UNIX use by former DOS users. CD-ROM is inexpensive, easy to use and stores up to 644 megabytes of information, making it a much more effective software distribution medium than floppy disks. Myth: UNIX is hard to use. Fact: Sun and other companies have created graphical user interfaces like OPEN LOOK that conceal the complexity of UNIX, making it easier to install and use. DOS, of course, has been easier to use because it doesn't do much. There's no functionality, so it's not complicated. Myth: UNIX will always be outdistanced by Macintosh OS and DOS. Fact: Although they currently have a larger market share, UNIX is catching up. According to UNIX International, UNIX has more than 10 million users worldwide as well as the highest growth rate. There will surely be more than a million SPARC/UNIX seats alone within the next few years, translating to more market opportunity for software developers and more innovative solutions for end users. Myth: UNIX systems are too expensive. Fact: A comparably equipped high-end PC now costs more than a Sun SPARCstation, which unlike a PC comes standard with such useful features as Ethernet connection, large memory and a monitor. And the cost of UNIX systems will continue to drop. UNIX is synonymous with "open," which is one reason why UNIX and the accompanying open systems movement are revolutionizing the computer industry. The amazing events of the past year, with long-time proprietary vendors being pushed onto the open systems bandwagon, will only ensure UNIX's ascendancy. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ For information send mail to info-sunflash@sunvice.East.Sun.COM. Subscription requests should be sent to sunflash-request@sunvice.East.Sun.COM. Archives are on solar.nova.edu and paris.cs.miami.edu. All prices, availability, and other statements relating to Sun or third party products are valid in the U.S. only. Please contact your local Sales Representative for details of pricing and product availability in your region. Descriptions of, or references to products or publications within SunFlash does not imply an endorsement of that product or publication by Sun Microsystems. John McLaughlin, SunFlash editor, flash@sunvice.East.Sun.COM. (305) 776-7770.